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Dec 16, 2001
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Re: Start with O-9 ???
Posted:
Dec 20, 2005, 3:09 PM
That means there have been over 4,000 games that started with K10, 09. Of those 4,000 games 57% are wins for black. There is no error, I believe that is correct. You can look at further positions in that line to verify for yourself (and you might find a new opening ).
Note that although 57% of the games are a win for black, if you look at that move in the database the next moves for white vary in win % from 13% to 73%. My point is that in general it is important to remember that just because you see 57% it doesn't mean it is necessarily a good move, often times if you look at the next moves after that you'll see that there is a really good move for the opponent, its just that alot of games DIDN'T take that line. Due to the database containing games from ALL players, expert and novice, it is sometimes difficult to quickly determine what the "best" move is in a given position. In this case I think O9 is a good move for black, although 57% is a little surprising.
A solution to what I talked about above that Mark and I have briefly discussed is to report back an additional percentage that signifies the % wins under optimal play by the opponent. What I mean is you would look at all of white's moves for O9 and go down the line with whites highest win % (maybe only for lines with 50 games or at least 10% of games for that position or something like that to weed out junk), then you would look at all of blacks win %'s and repeat. Eventually you reach the end of the line (or a given depth of 5 moves for example) and you report back the win percentage FROM THAT POSITION. This is how a computer opponent is commonly programmed by the way. That is a fairly easy concept to grasp, but I haven't actually thought of all the details of implementing it, it would probably be fairly difficult and slow. But it would probably give you a better feel for how good a given position is.
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