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Owen's P1 vs. Karl's P2 Money Match Thread
Posted:
Sep 2, 2026, 6:58 PM
Branching this from the other thread because it deserves its own.
I propose a 4-game, 20+0 Pente-pro match. If you prefer increment, we could make it 20+5. I will be P2 all four games. 2-3 minute break between games.
I think you're in agreement with the game format. What we need to agree upon is the payout structure. I will flatly reject any structure that pays equal for P1 winning as for P2; that is fundamentally absurd and we all know it.
What I propose is different payouts for the 5 possible outcomes (4-0 Owen, 3-1, 2-2, 1-3, 0-4 Karl), such that the expected payment based on the likelihood of each outcome is exactly $0. This will require we reach an agreement on the likelihood of each outcome.
My pente.org live game win rate as P2 against experts (rating >2000) is 21.4%. I therefore propose a 25% likelihood of P2 victory in each game, which I think you will agree is fair given your already stated views. The probability of each outcome is therefore:
4-0: $100 to Owen 3-1: No payout 2-2: $100 to Karl 1-3: $200 to Karl 0-4: $300 to Karl
Expected payout = 0.32*100 + 0.21*(-100) + 0.05*(-200) + 0.004*(-300) = 0, so this is a fair proposition.
This is the same as $25 per P1 win, $75 per P2 win, matching P1's 3:1 odds of victory.
I await your counteroffer. I will be more open to counteroffers that include an expected win % as P2 and a payout structure that has an expected payout of $0.
It's no use going back to yesterday, because I was a different person then.
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Re: Owen's P1 vs. Karl's P2 Money Match Thread
Posted:
Sep 2, 2026, 11:03 PM
You are a hustler karl. Lol This format, goes highly in your favor. You essentially have no risk but your opponent does. You will win at least 1 game. Means no risk to you by default. He must struggle from that point to not lose money lol.
Scire hostis animum - Intelligere ludum - Nosce te ipsum - Prima moventur conciliat - Nolite errare
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Re: Owen's P1 vs. Karl's P2 Money Match Thread
Posted:
Sep 2, 2026, 11:08 PM
I'm not a hustler if you accept owen's argument that pente is a "sure win" for p1. One could equally argue that I have no chance of winning more than one game against him, in which case there is zero risk for him.
If he believes that my proposed payouts are unfair, then he can certainly suggest a higher P2 win %, but that will go against his "sure win" argument.
The ball is in his court.
It's no use going back to yesterday, because I was a different person then.
Re: Owen's P1 vs. Karl's P2 Money Match Thread
Posted:
Sep 2, 2026, 11:34 PM
First of all, in general, I agree, it looks fair (and I estimate my expected value to be positive, I'm an optimist). More, I think such a match always helps in building relations between people, no matter who wins. So I'm in =)
20 minutes is quite a short control but it should be enough to calculate one or two moves accurately. I'd ask for some Fisher, 20+5 is better for me than 20+0 because I'm used to it. 30+5 is the best =)
Next, may I use my analyzes (in a renlib file)? If you want to win clearly showing that P2 is having a lot of opportunities, well, maybe it's OK to you? If you say "no", I will not use them, of course. They are quite short, just the main lines usually. The bright side for me is that I will not have to memorize those lines, key moves and such just before the match.
We have to find good date and time for it so both of us aren't sleepy, both aren't working, no children around, stable internet etc. So maybe we will have to split it into two sessions of two games. Anyway the question is: do you want to play it before the tournament end or after?
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Re: Owen's P1 vs. Karl's P2 Money Match Thread
Posted:
Sep 3, 2026, 12:12 AM
I agree to 30+5. I want to take credit for any wins I get based on my moves, not time management.
Two sessions of two games also works for me.
> Next, may I use my analyzes (in a renlib file)?
Do you mean having access to your opening database during the games? I'd prefer not, but since it's not enforceable, I'm leaning toward allowing it, just for the purpose of playing your "book moves" in the opening. I have my own opening theory, and wouldn't want to mess up a key transposition
Of course, playing out candidate moves on a separate board is entirely forbidden and punishable by death, as is using the pente.org database. Honor system.
> Anyway the question is: do you want to play it before the tournament end or after?
Before vs. after the tournament is a very interesting question. Do I want my P2 secrets to be saved for the tourney, for the money match, or split? I am partial to waiting until the tournament concludes, because it began before this idea came into being and I think a lot of people are interested in the outcome. Plus, revealing openings is a lot more disadvantageous to turn-based play than live play.
So let's wait until the tourney is wrapping up, then work on scheduling times.
Excited!
It's no use going back to yesterday, because I was a different person then.
