Re: some profiles disappeared
Posted:
Jul 15, 2026, 3:13 AM
It didn't take too long actually, I am procrastinating stuff anyway and it seemed like a fun thing to do.
This isn't sequential, don't read it left to right. I am not trying to model what 20 sets of you 2 playing each other would actually look like. Each column just shows a non-provisional account at 2636 against an account that has x sets completed. Just for illustrative purposes.
Posts:
1,006
Registered:
Mar 7, 2006
From:
Philadelphia, PA
Age:
38
Re: some profiles disappeared
Posted:
Jul 15, 2026, 3:19 AM
His calculations are correct. Verifying took me 5 minutes.
Basically, if you were to play me with a brand new account and win a set, rather than lose the normal maximum of 64 points, I lose 64/20 ~= 3 points. If you had already played 5 games, I lose 64/15 ~= 4 points. Only once you've played 20 games will I lose the full 64.
You already have an idea of how provisional ratings work. You start with a 1600 rating. If you beat me in your first set, you would get a rating based on our average rating + 400, which is a nice juicy 2518 (if we draw, it's just the average of 2118). After that, the rating calculation is a weighted average of your current rating and a similar provisional rating, favoring your current rating more as you play more games until 20 games (the specifics are complicated).
The take-away is that this strategy could quickly get you to a 2500 rating, but you would have to beat me consistently. If you score an early draw or two which is likely, you're probably going to end up 2000-ish. These are pretty much the ratings you objectively deserve if you beat me or draw me in a set, absent any other data.
From my perspective, my rating will hardly be affected unless you've played at least 15 games, at which point your rating will hopefully be representative.
It's no use going back to yesterday, because I was a different person then.
Posts:
2,274
Registered:
Mar 4, 2007
From:
San Francisco
Age:
45 Home page
Re: some profiles disappeared
Posted:
Jul 15, 2026, 4:07 AM
Oh ok cool. To be honest tho, this subject is somewhat moot. Because Tragedy will always come back with a new account. And rainwolf will never enforce the no alts allowed policy that dweebo wrote into the sites policy. Debates over the ethics of it, seem to be pointless as we cant do anything with the outcome. It does annoy me tho, when I cant study a person's moves in the data base, but they can study mine.
Scire hostis animum - Intelligere ludum - Nosce te ipsum - Prima moventur conciliat - Nolite errare
